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HCA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: HCA's acquisition of Catholic Medical Center enhances operational scope while historical resilience supports growth amidst potential U.S. healthcare reforms.



Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges and reputational issues from past data breaches continue to weigh on HCA's potential, with implied volatility suggesting market caution.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings growth continues (65%).

2. Legal setbacks affect stock (50%).

3. Regulatory changes impact operations (30%).

4. Successful integration of acquisitions boosts value (55%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a short volatility strategy using put credit spreads. Sell the $305 put and buy the $300 put, targeting near-term stability. This takes advantage of contango and a positive edge with a high probability of profit, leveraging market expectations of reduced volatility.


January 28, 2025


HCA Healthcare Forecast

HCA        HCA Healthcare

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