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HIG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: HIG's low P/B ratio and stable earnings growth suggest strong upside potential. Elevated call trading indicates bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and mean-reversion nature could bring downside risk, especially amid broader economic uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes: HIG grows towards $125 (35%), stabilizes around $115 (30%), or corrects to $105 due to volatility (25%).

Trading Oracle: Employ a bullish debit spread by buying June $115 calls and selling $120 calls. This strategy leverages moderate implied volatility for a profitable risk-reward within 60 days.

February 21, 2025

Hartford Financial Services Forecast

HIG Hartford Financial Services

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HIG

AFL Aflac (0.95)

SPLV Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.93)

USMV BTC iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor (0.92)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.92)

IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.91)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HIG

AEHR Aehr Test Systems (-0.0)

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.01)

CPS Cooper-Standard (-0.01)

BLBD Blue Bird (0.02)

OLED Universal Display (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HIG

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.78)

BP BP (-0.79)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.83)

BLDP Ballard Power Systems (-0.85)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.85)

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