HLT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: HLT's robust historical returns and ongoing hotel expansions indicate strong growth potential. Low volatility and a positive short-term price forecast further support a bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: High current implied volatility, negative return likelihood in some scenarios, and macroeconomic headwinds suggest downside risks. Potential overvaluation indicated by various metrics.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rise due to continued expansion (30%).

2. Price decline due to macroeconomic headwinds and high volatility (40%).

3. Neutral stability around current price (30%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish credit spread by selling $220 puts and buying $200 puts expiring in ~25 days, leveraging high probability of profit and positive edge. This is optimal given positive short-term signals and strong historical growth with limited downside risk.


July 23, 2024


Hilton Worldwide Forecast

HLT      Hilton Worldwide











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HLT



KIE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KIE  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR S&P Insurance (0.95)


CRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRH  CRH Plc (0.94)


MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (0.94)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (0.94)


HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HLT



NLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NLY  Annaly (0.01)


SMAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMAR  Smartsheet (0.01)


ALK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALK  Alaska Air (0.01)


GCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GCI  Gannett (-0.01)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HLT



SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.92)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.94)


HLT News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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