Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Rising gold prices combined with growing institutional interest could significantly enhance HMY's profitability and stock price. Current low implied volatility indicates a potential rebound in performance as market uncertainty stabilizes.

Bearish Case: Increased geopolitical risks and potential currency fluctuations pose significant headwinds for HMY. High market volatility could lead to sharp price corrections, undermining investor confidence and operational stability.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Gold price increases (40%): Boost HMY margins.

2. Institutional buying resurgence (30%): Drives stock up.

3. Geopolitical tensions rise (20%): Disrupts operations.

4. Currency volatility impacts earnings (10%): Reduces profit margins.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish strategy by executing a debit spread with $10.0 calls and $12.0 calls. This leverages the current low volatility and market optimism, with estimated 23% probability of profit and high return potential, allowing for strategic upside exposure while managing downside risks.

November 17, 2024