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HPE Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: HPE's demand for AI servers sustains significant growth, evidenced by surpassing Q4 revenue expectations, positively impacting share price amidst strong economic fundamentals.



Bearish Case: Increased legal scrutiny over recent acquisitions and a neutral AI market forecast could limit revenue growth, contributing to a potential share price decline as investor confidence wanes.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance: HPE Q1 earnings beat expectations, driving share price above $24.
  • 30% chance: Legal issues hinder growth, leading to a drop to $19.
  • 30% chance: Continued mean-reversion pattern stabilizes HPE around $21.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long call spread by purchasing the HPE $22.50 call and selling the $24.00 call, aiming for a target within 30 days as implied volatility is currently high (54.7%). This captures positive price movement while managing downside risk effectively.


December 13, 2024


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