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HPE Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: HPE's strategic focus on AI and cloud services positions it well for growth. With high implied volatility in calls, leveraging this momentum suggests potential for substantial upward price movement in the near term.



Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges and a neutral AI outlook may hinder HPE's growth potential. The flat implied volatility term structure indicates market skepticism, suggesting a potential decrease in stock value.



Potential Outcomes:

1. HPE meets Q4 expectations driving a price increase: 40% chance.

2. Regulatory issues lead to a significant decline: 30% chance.

3. Neutral earnings result in stagnant price movement: 30% chance.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long volatility strategy by buying 1 HPE $22 call and selling 1 $23 call, expiring in 37 days. This captures the high volatility while offering a solid reward-to-risk ratio with estimated 70% probability of profit.


November 15, 2024


Hewlett Packard Enterprise Forecast

HPE        Hewlett Packard Enterprise

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