RYAN Forecast


Bullish Case: RYAN is positioned for a bounce-back given mean-reverting nature, with successful MGU potentially boosting growth amid moderate implied volatility ahead.


Bearish Case: Persistent D&O claims could drag down earnings, with historical high volatility and current overshoot in options volume signaling potential downside risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1) MGU drives significant growth (+60%),

2) D&O claims continue hurting financials (-25%),

3) Neutral outcome with minor fluctuations around current price (+15%).


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July 16, 2024


Ryan Specialty Forecast

RYAN      Ryan Specialty











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RYAN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.75)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.49)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RYAN



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.49)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.75)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RYAN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.75)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.6)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.49)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)





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