IEFA Forecast


Bullish Case: IEFA has shown consistent upward momentum, growing ~22% in 5 years. Call options for August show higher volumes, supporting bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Market uncertainty is slightly higher than Helium's forecast. Puts traded at 12.5% IV reflect cautiousness considering potential global market downturns.


Potential Outcomes: Probabilities: 0-5% gain (~55%), 5-10% gain (~30%), 0-5% loss (~10%), 5-10% loss (~5%) due to data simulating historical trends and global market conditions.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit call spread by buying IEFA Aug 16 76.0C and selling 77.0C. Expect IV to rise short term. Set stop at 0.15 loss per spread. Positive edge, superior risk/reward.


July 16, 2024


BTC iShares Core MSCI EAF Forecast

IEFA      BTC iShares Core MSCI EAF











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IEFA



EFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EFA  BTC iShares MSCI EAFE (1.0)


EWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWG  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Germany (0.99)


IWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWR  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.98)


EWC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWC  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Canada (0.98)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.98)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IEFA



RUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RUN  Sunrun (0.0)


FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (0.0)


SONY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SONY  Sony Group Corporation (0.0)


NOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOG  Northern Oil and Gas (0.01)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IEFA



TWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWM  ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 (-0.96)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.97)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.97)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.98)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)





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