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ING Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ING's consistent historical returns and high call volume suggest potential upside. Substantial digital transformation and sustainability focus may drive growth.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and concerns over loan defaults and regulatory changes indicate significant risks. Market uncertainties could stifle bank profitability.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic downturn reduces loan demand: 35%.

2. Buyback programs boost stock: 25%.

3. Regulatory hurdles increase costs: 20%.

4. Positive sentiment drives rally: 20%.



Trading Oracle: Construct a short volatility position on ING with a bearish spread: sell $17 call and buy $18 call, expiring in 28 days. This aligns with the current high implied volatility and expected market downturn, providing a strong edge with a high probability of profit.


January 26, 2025


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