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IWD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: IWD's focus on value stocks and rising call option volume suggest upside potential. Historical performance indicates resilience, aligning with improved market sentiment and potential economic stability.



Bearish Case: Heightened implied volatility and mean-reverting price action coupled with economic uncertainties signal downside risks. Sector concentration in financials and energy might underperform amid market volatility.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Stagnant price movement (55%)
  2. Moderate gains of 5-10% (25%)
  3. Decline of 5% due to economic factors (20%)



Trading Oracle: Deploy a bull call spread: buy IWD $194 call and sell $198 call expiring May 2025. This leverages potential moderate gains with a hedged approach, capitalizing on high call volume and subdued market volatility.


January 30, 2025


iShares Russell 1000 Value Forecast

IWD        iShares Russell 1000 Value

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IWD


SPYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYV  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.99)


VTV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTV  Vanguard Value (0.99)


DGRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DGRO  iShares Core Dividend Growth (0.98)


IWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWR  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.98)


SPLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLV  Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IWD


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.0)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.0)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.01)


RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (-0.01)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IWD


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.83)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.83)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.84)


BLDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLDP  Ballard Power Systems (-0.86)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)







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