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AI IWO Forecast

Bullish Case: The IWO implied volatility term structure suggests lower volatility into early 2025, indicating stabilizing market confidence. The positive historical price return patterns indicate potential for upward momentum as institutional interest grows.

Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility and a flat current price trend signal potential profit-taking or bearish sentiments, risking a downturn if macroeconomic factors shift negatively against small-cap stocks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable price with gradual growth: 45% chance, supported by institutional investments.

2. Sudden volatility spike: 30% chance, contingent on market corrections.

3. Prolonged stagnation: 25% chance, influenced by lack of decisive market movement.

Trading Oracle: Engage in bullish credit spreads by selling IWO 08/16/2024 270/260 P to leverage current high implied volatility and capture premium, maximizing returns as market stability favors a neutral-to-bullish outlook.

August 10, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IWO

VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 Index (0.99)

UWM ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (0.97)

MIDU Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bull 3x Shares (0.96)

VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (0.95)

SCHD Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.95)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IWO

BGS B&G Foods (-0.0)

INTA Intapp (-0.0)

HUN Huntsman (-0.0)

RIO Rio Tinto (0.0)

MDLZ Mondelez International (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IWO

VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.86)

SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.91)

SH ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.92)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)

SRTY ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.98)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.