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JNUG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: JNUG's 42% rise over ninety days suggests momentum in the gold sector. Elevated call volume (71%) indicates bullish sentiment, which, alongside an 18% bullish risk bias, supports potential gains.

Bearish Case: JNUG's historical mean reversion and recent price adjustments suggest correction risks. A flat volatility term structure may limit further upside, with potential resistance near $80.

Potential Outcomes: 45%: JNUG increases by 10% as gold markets react positively.
35%: JNUG declines by 5% due to mean-reversion.
20%: JNUG remains neutral, hovering around $74.25 with flat volatility.

Trading Oracle: Leverage bullish short volatility due to current IV structure. Short 71% ATM puts and hedge with OOTM puts, exploiting flat structure to capitalize on expected small upside and volatility decays.

May 11, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JNUG

GFI Gold Fields (0.81)

EUFN BTC iShares MSCI Europe Financials (0.79)

BABA Alibaba (0.78)

SAN Banco Santander (0.78)

FEZ SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.69)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JNUG

AMZN Amazon.com (0.0)

TWO Two Harbors Investment (0.01)

RLX RLX Technology (0.02)

BAX Baxter International (-0.03)

MAC Macerich (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JNUG

DECK Deckers Outdoor (-0.62)

M Macy's (-0.62)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.63)

AMCX AMC Networks (-0.68)

FUN Cedar Fair (-0.71)

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