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JNUG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: JNUG's 42% rise over ninety days suggests momentum in the gold sector. Elevated call volume (71%) indicates bullish sentiment, which, alongside an 18% bullish risk bias, supports potential gains.



Bearish Case: JNUG's historical mean reversion and recent price adjustments suggest correction risks. A flat volatility term structure may limit further upside, with potential resistance near $80.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 45%: JNUG increases by 10% as gold markets react positively.
  • 35%: JNUG declines by 5% due to mean-reversion.
  • 20%: JNUG remains neutral, hovering around $74.25 with flat volatility.



Trading Oracle:
Leverage bullish short volatility due to current IV structure. Short 71% ATM puts and hedge with OOTM puts, exploiting flat structure to capitalize on expected small upside and volatility decays.


May 11, 2025


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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JNUG


KLAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KLAC  KLA (0.0)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (0.0)


EXAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXAS  Exact Sciences (0.01)


PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (0.01)


CVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVX  Chevron (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JNUG


CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (-0.53)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.54)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.55)


AMCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMCX  AMC Networks (-0.61)


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (-0.63)







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