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K Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Kellogg's innovation, coupled with a possible market rebound, could drive price growth. Flat volatility suggests stable conditions, supporting bullish positions.

Bearish Case: High put option volume and mean-reverting historical returns signal potential downside risk. Persisting competitive pressures may strain margins.

Potential Outcomes: Growth from innovation (60%)
Downside from market pressures (40%)
Probability estimates are based on historical trends and current volatility metrics.

Trading Oracle: Initiate call debit spreads targeting mid-2025 expirations. Utilize Helium's long volatility strategies given the implied volatility slightly above market levels. Focus on strikes within $80-$85. This approach leverages potential bullish outcomes with contained risk, capitalizing on volatility contraction scenarios.

January 14, 2025

Kellogg Forecast

K Kellogg

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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ORI Old Republic International (0.93)

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GVA Granite Construction (0.92)

SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to K

OLED Universal Display (-0.01)

UAN CVR Partners (-0.01)

INTU Intuit (-0.02)

UWMC UWM Holdings Corporation (0.02)

ACN Accenture (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against K

LEA Lear (-0.85)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)

XRX Xerox (-0.86)

IEP Icahn (-0.86)

AMR Alta Mesa Resources (-0.87)

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