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Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Kellogg's focus on product innovation and strategic initiatives enhances its growth potential. With a mean-reverting price pattern and strong market position, a gradual uptrend is feasible.



Bearish Case: K faces challenges from high operational costs and competitive pressures. Persisting inflation and volatile market conditions may hinder profitability, leading to potential downside risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Steady growth in K due to product innovation (40%).

2. Downside from economic pressures (30%).

3. Stability with minor fluctuations (30%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish approach using credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) targeting June 2025 expirations. This leverages high current implied volatility and decaying forward volatility curves. Focus on $80-$85 strikes to profit from potential market stabilization or decline.


February 13, 2025


Kellogg Forecast

K        Kellogg

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