Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The bullish case hinges on rising EV demand and potential sentiment recovery. Historical return patterns indicate a greater likelihood of gains with strategic holdings, benefiting from high volatility absorption.

Bearish Case: Economic uncertainty and high volatility may trigger further price declines. The current price trend is negative, supported by historical data indicating potential for significant downward movement.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Market rebound (30%): Positive sentiment shifts lead to price recovery.

2. Continued downside (40%): Economic headwinds escalate, increasing pressure on prices.

3. Sideways consolidation (30%): Temporary stabilization occurs around current levels.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bull put spread with short OTM puts (strike 19) and long further OTM puts (strike 18). This strategy capitalizes on elevated implied volatility while limiting risk. Look to enter positions with at least 60 days until expiration to maximize premium collection for the underlying bullish outlook.

October 20, 2024