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KBE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: KBE could rally as volatility is expected to decrease, suggesting reduced uncertainty. The ETF's focus on regional banks poised for recovery enhances this potential, especially given past performance trends showing likely rebounds.

Bearish Case: High near-term implied volatility indicates caution due to potential regulatory changes and economic sluggishness. Historical patterns suggest downside risks persist, with increased put volume reflecting bearish sentiment.

Potential Outcomes: KBE rebound above $60 (20%): Due to declining volatility.
Price drops below $50 (40%): Driven by regulatory risks.
Stabilizes around $55 (40%): Amid persistent volatility anxieties.

March 20, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KBE

DPST Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.98)

MTB M & T (0.98)

COLB Columbia Banking System (0.97)

EWBC East West Bancorp (0.97)

DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.95)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KBE

UBER Uber (-0.01)

OMC Omnicom Group (0.01)

ESTC Elastic (-0.02)

INTU Intuit (0.03)

STLD Steel Dynamics (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KBE

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (-0.82)

STM New York Shares (-0.82)

WU Western Union (-0.83)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.84)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.93)

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