KRE Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: The KRE shows potential for growth, supported by lowered market volatility (term structure indicating sustained decline). With institutional interest noted at historical levels and price returning to higher ranges, a recovery rally looks plausible.


Bearish Case: Continued low trading volume and high implied volatility suggest market trepidation. Risks of adverse economic news amplify the likelihood of price declines, undermining current stability figures and leading to potential significant drops.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable market, slight gains (60%).

2. Increased institutional activity, moderate price increase (25%).

3. Unfavorable economic data, sharp declines (15%).


Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish credit spread: sell the $55 put, buy the $52 put, aiming for profits in the next 30 days. The trade balances risk with a high probability of profit (around 76% Helium odds) while leveraging current low volatility.


July 24, 2024


SPDR S&P Regional Banking Forecast

KRE      SPDR S&P Regional Banking











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KRE



DPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPST  Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.94)


WAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WAL  Western Alliance Bancorp (0.93)


ASB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASB  Associated Banc-Corp. (0.92)


IAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Regional Banks (0.91)


ZION Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZION  Zions Bancorporation N.A (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KRE



CHGG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHGG  Chegg (-0.0)


U Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   U  Unity Software (-0.0)


VALE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VALE  Vale (0.0)


RICK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RICK  RCI Hospitality (-0.0)


AHCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AHCO  AdaptHealth (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KRE



DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOG  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.71)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.73)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.73)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.86)





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