Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A bullish case hinges on positive sentiment driven by recent investment trends in tech and potential regulatory easing in China, supported by rising implied volatility. Helium’s AI forecasts a 0.87% price increase, indicating strong upward potential.

Bearish Case: In a bearish scenario, ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory scrutiny could derail recovery, leading to sustained selling pressure. High recent volatility suggests potential for downside risks that may push prices lower than current levels.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of a short-term rally to $35 due to positive sentiment.

2. 30% chance of consolidating around $30.83 due to mixed signals.

3. 20% chance of bearish sentiment dropping prices to $28.

4. 10% chance of extreme volatility leading to a spike or drop beyond $35 or $25.

Trading Oracle: Given the favorable implied volatility and market conditions, consider a bullish debit spread by buying KWEB $30.00 Call and selling $32.00 Call, expiring in January 2025. This targets upward movement while limiting risk with a solid risk/reward ratio. Projected profit of 20% on investment.

November 19, 2024