BILI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Bilibili's recent increase in call option volume indicates potential for price recovery driven by investor optimism, with lower implied volatility than the market suggesting undervaluation of options. This could lead to upward momentum as users and partnerships expand.


Bearish Case: Continued financial instability, highlighted by broader industry pressures and potential regulatory complications, could exacerbate Bilibili's stock decline, particularly against the backdrop of high market volatility and low trading volume, indicating weak investor confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Profit recovery and user growth (40%);

2. Prolonged seller's strike leading to increased market uncertainty (-30%);

3. Regulatory actions causing further price suppression (-30%).


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread strategy, buying $15.0 strike calls and selling $16.0 calls, expiring in ~14 days. This strategy aligns with positive outlooks due to lower volatility, offering favorable risk/reward with a high probability of profit (around 75%).


July 24, 2024


Bilibili Forecast

BILI      Bilibili











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