Bullish Case: Despite setbacks, Bilibili's potential for recovery could be bolstered by positive analyst ratings and implied opportunities from option trading [Business Insider][Helium].


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Bearish Case: Bilibili's wider-than-expected Q2 losses and decreased revenue forecast signal financial instability, while high implied volatility conveys market uncertainty [The Wall Street Journal][Helium].


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Takeaway: Bilibili faces a precarious situation with significant financial losses and market volatility. These challenges undermine its positive prospects. Past predictions have largely captured Bilibili's tumultuous trajectory with fair accuracy.


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Potential Outcomes: \

1. Bilibili rebounds via untapped market sectors or successful restructuring, 25% chance— derived from historical trends and analyst predictions [Business Insider][Helium].

2. Bilibili's financial instability extends, plunging the stock price further, 50% probability— justified by recent financial performance [The Wall Street Journal][Helium-9].

3. Ongoing market volatility causes erratic stock shifts and uncertainty, 25% likelihood— corroborated by current high implied volatility and extreme option trading volume [Helium][Helium].


September 14, 2023



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CMPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CMPS]  Compass Pathways (-0.01)


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UAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UAL]  United Airlines (0.01)



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AFRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [AFRM]  Affirm (-0.66)


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