BILI Forecast




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: BiliBili's recent option activity shows bullish sentiment with call volumes surpassing puts by 66%. Furthermore, a recovering mean-reverting price trend indicates a potential upward movement in the near term, fueled by upcoming favorable earnings.




Bearish Case: Despite positive signs, BiliBili faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. The implied volatility remains elevated, indicating market participants expect continued uncertainty. This could suppress price growth in the short term.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings surprise boosts stock (40%);

2. Continued regulatory scrutiny suppresses price (35%);

3. Market sentiment shifts towards recovery, aiding BILI (25%).




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy by initiating a debit spread: buy the $21.00 call and sell the $21.50 call expiring in 14 days. This exploits higher bullish risk while keeping losses manageable. Alternatively, utilize a bearish credit spread selling $18.50 calls against $21.00. Evaluate both for returns based on imminent market dynamics.



November 19, 2024


Bilibili Forecast

BILI        Bilibili











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MCHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCHI  BTC iShares MSCI China (0.92)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.91)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (0.9)


FUTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUTU  Futu (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BILI



PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (-0.01)


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOBY  Joby Aviation (-0.01)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (0.01)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (-0.01)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BILI



JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (-0.85)


TWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWI  Titan International (-0.86)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.88)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.92)









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