LAD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Lithia Motors demonstrates resilience and strong institutional support. Given the significant uptick in institutional holdings and AI models forecasting higher returns, a price recovery to above $300 is plausible.


Bearish Case: The recent ransomware attack impacting operations, ongoing supply chain issues, and falling below key price levels indicate potential downside risks. Implied volatility suggests market apprehensions around future performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Slight increase to stable ($260) - 30%.

2. Significant recovery to bullish levels ($300) - 20%.

3. Decline due to heightened uncertainties, possibly to around $230 - 35%.

4. Flat market near current level - 15%.


Trading Oracle: With high implied volatility and market uncertainty, implement a medium-term bearish debit spread: Buy a Sept $250 put and sell a Sept $240 put. This captures downside potential given current market challenges and high helium-model implied volatility. High reward-to-risk, favorable profit probability.


June 30, 2024


Lithia Motors Forecast

LAD      Lithia Motors











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LAD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.3)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LAD



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.3)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LAD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.69)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.3)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.31)





Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with LAD


 Ask any question about LAD!