Bullish Case: LESL could see a rebound due to high trading volume and bullish sentiment on social media. The historical mean-reverting nature suggests potential upside if macroeconomic conditions improve or demand for home improvements rises.

Bearish Case: Persistent negative historical returns and high volatility imply further price declines. Continued economic uncertainty and recent poor demand forecasts suggest bearish outlook remains justified.

Potential Outcomes:

• 20% chance of economic recovery boosting demand.
• 40% chance of continued retail struggles keeping prices flat.
• 30% chance of temporary price rebound post-earnings.
• 10% chance of further decline due to financial issues.

Trading Oracle: Helium Short Volatility via credit spreads seems optimal. Consider selling May '25 $4 calls and buying $6 calls, leveraging high implied volatility and bearish outlook. This approach minimizes risk and offers a high probability of profit over a 3-4 month timeline.

January 22, 2025