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LI Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Li Auto's recent delivery growth and innovative product launches align with increased demand for EVs, suggesting strong future revenue potential. Government support and favorable market sentiment bolster a bullish outlook.



Bearish Case: Heightened competition in the EV sector and potential regulatory changes could pressure Li Auto's margins and growth targets, leading to investor uncertainty and potential stock declines.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued sales growth (55% chance) as consumer preference shifts to EVs.

2. Increased market share due to government incentives (30% chance).

3. A negative earnings report impacts stock performance (15% chance).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish short volatility credit spread by selling a $22.00 put and buying a $21.50 put, targeting potential gains from LI's stability. With a strong probability of profit estimated at 70%, this strategy leverages current low volatility and favorable market sentiment.


November 15, 2024


Li Auto Forecast

LI        Li Auto

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