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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: LINC's strong revenue growth and institutional backing suggest increasing market confidence, potentially driving a substantial price increase. Favorable macro trends in vocational education could further enhance its appeal.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and mean-reverting price actions, combined with insider selling, present risks for LINC. If earnings growth stumbles, the stock could see significant decline driven by negative market sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth (45%): Strong revenue and market trends could yield 20-30% returns.

2. Price stagnation (35%): High IV and insider selling may lead to a 5-10% variability.

3. Decline (20%): If earnings fall, a drop of 15-25% is plausible.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a short volatility strategy via credit spreads on put options with high IV, targeting the August 2024 expirations. This bearish outlook captures premium from the high IV, balancing risk efficiently while expecting potential stagnation.

August 17, 2024