LSPD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Dax Dasilva's return and Q4 earnings beat have sparked investor confidence. Insider buying reflects optimism about future prospects [Yahoo][Yahoo].


Bearish Case: Implied volatility term structure shows sustained uncertainty. Recent price recovery insufficient to offset long-term decline, indicating potential risk [Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings Growth (>20%): 70%.

2. Insider Buy Activity: 60%.

3. Long-term Price Decline (>10%): 50%.

4. Volatility Shock (>70% IV): 40%.


Trading Oracle: Deploy Helium Long Volatility via debit spreads. Execute 1 Aug 16, 2024 $14 Call and sell 1 $15 Call. High-risk, 138% annualized return, leveraging high IV, bullish outlook, 31% Helium odds of profit.


July 10, 2024


Lightspeed Commerce Inc (Sub Voting) Forecast

LSPD      Lightspeed Commerce Inc (Sub Voting)











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LSPD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.34)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.28)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LSPD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.28)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.34)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.58)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.59)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LSPD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.34)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.28)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.59)





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