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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Mattel's diversification into media and successful product lines from the Barbie franchise suggest potential for revenue growth, leveraging brand equity in various segments and improving market sentiment.



Bearish Case: Ongoing declines in core toy sales amid economic pressures, coupled with challenges in sustaining recent media successes, create significant downside risks for Mattel's stock performance.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful launch of new toys and media projects (60% chance);

2. Continued decline in core toy sales hindering recovery efforts (50% chance);

3. Legal issues impacting brand reputation (30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long call spread targeting $20 strike calls due in 28 days, capitalizing on potential positive news and recovery in brand momentum. This strategy benefits from heightened implied volatility and offers significant upside with manageable risk. Monitor earnings and product launch timelines closely.


October 20, 2024











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