BMY Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BMY is undervalued, trading below fair value, and presents potential for growth due to a strong R&D pipeline, new drug approvals, and attractive dividend yield.


Bearish Case: High competition, patent expirations, and market sentiment negatively impact BMY's stock. Recent price declines and high implied volatility indicate bearish risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful clinical trials boost stock (40%)

2) Competition and patent issues drag down price (35%)

3) Neutral outcomes, stock remains stagnant (25%)


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish long volatility by buying 1 $38.0 strike put and selling 1 $37.0 strike put, expiring in 51 days. High reward/risk ratio of 7.2, Helium odds of profit 14%. Mean-reverting trends and high short-term implied volatility suggest downside protection and profit potential.


June 27, 2024


Bristol-Myers Squibb Forecast

BMY      Bristol-Myers Squibb











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.13)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BMY



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.13)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.68)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.74)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BMY



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.8)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.74)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.13)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.68)





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