MBI Forecast


Bullish Case: MBI shows strong implied volatility exceeding market levels, signaling a bullish opportunity as it suggests potential upward price correction, fueled by speculative buying and strategic market plays.




Bearish Case: MBI's high implied volatility and declining historical price indicate potential downside risk, heightened by market skepticism and continued geopolitical instability in key operational regions.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance: Volatility-driven upward correction from current price depression.
  • 30% chance: Continued price stagnation as market forces stabilize.
  • 20% chance: Downward drift due to unresolved geopolitical tensions.




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May 11, 2025


MBIA Forecast

MBI        MBIA











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RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.8)


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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MBI



CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (-0.0)


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (0.0)


BIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIP  Brookfield Infrastructure (-0.0)


XLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLU  Utilities Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)


CGNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CGNX  Cognex (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MBI



BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (-0.63)


SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (-0.65)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.72)


O Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   O  Realty Income (-0.73)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.81)









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