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MCS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MCS shows improved consumer sentiment and strategic acquisitions. Recent price action suggests resilience, supported by high implied volatility indicating potential upward momentum.

Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility and negative historical returns suggest investor anxiety, highlighting risks from economic uncertainties and overvaluation concerns.

Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of bullish growth driven by strategic expansions.
40% chance of stagnation due to economic pressures.
30% possibility of decline from regulatory challenges and competition.

Trading Oracle: Consider a long volatility debit spread on MCS, buying $20 calls and selling $25 calls expiring in 1-3 months. Exploit high implied volatility for a bullish play, anticipating potential recovery or strategic announcements to drive short-term upward movements.

February 11, 2025

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Assets that tend to move strongly with MCS

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UNM Unum (0.87)

BBW Build A Bear Workshop (0.86)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MCS

RMBS Rambus (-0.0)

INTU Intuit (0.01)

HBM Hudbay Minerals (-0.02)

ARKG ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (0.04)

TDOC Teladoc Health (-0.05)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MCS

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (-0.83)

AMAT Applied Materials (-0.84)

CLW Clearwater Paper (-0.86)

ST Sensata (-0.86)

BIIB Biogen (-0.89)

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