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MFA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: MFA's high dividend yield and mean-reverting trends suggest potential recovery. Increased institutional interest is likely to boost confidence.



Bearish Case: Sustained economic pressures and high implied volatility indicate continued downside risk, with limited recovery potential amidst lingering macro concerns.



Potential Outcomes:

1. (40%) Dividend appeal attracts investors, stabilizing price.

2. (30%) Economic challenges lead to further declines.

3. (30%) High volatility sparks unpredictable price movement.



Trading Oracle: The bearish long volatility strategy is optimal given current high IV and economic uncertainties. It exploits potential downside while benefiting from volatility expansion. Bearish Long Volatility Strategy


April 16, 2025


MFA Financial Forecast

MFA        MFA Financial

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MFA


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (0.85)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.81)


BAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAH  Booz Allen Hamilton (0.8)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.79)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MFA


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (-0.0)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (-0.0)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (0.01)


RYAAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RYAAY  Ryanair (0.01)


HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MFA


HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (-0.7)


PCOR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCOR  Procore (-0.7)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.73)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.76)


CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (-0.77)







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