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MFA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MFA's high dividend yield and mean-reverting trends suggest potential recovery. Increased institutional interest is likely to boost confidence.

Bearish Case: Sustained economic pressures and high implied volatility indicate continued downside risk, with limited recovery potential amidst lingering macro concerns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. (40%) Dividend appeal attracts investors, stabilizing price.

2. (30%) Economic challenges lead to further declines.

3. (30%) High volatility sparks unpredictable price movement.

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April 16, 2025

MFA Financial Forecast

MFA MFA Financial

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MFA

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (0.89)

JOE St. Joe (0.85)

MPWR Monolithic Power System (0.85)

XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.84)

ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.84)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MFA

RING BTC iShares MSCI Global G (-0.0)

FUN Cedar Fair (-0.01)

POST Post (-0.01)

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.02)

RY Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MFA

FRSH Freshworks (-0.68)

DAVE Dave (-0.68)

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.7)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.73)

CPRT Copart (-0.74)

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