JOE Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: JOE's historical price return surface indicates persistently positive returns over longer holding periods. Combined with recent strategic growth initiatives (healthcare, real estate), the upward trend is expected to continue.


Bearish Case: Despite recent strategic initiatives, the implied volatility surface and Helium Uncertainty - Market Uncertainty surface show elevated market uncertainty, indicating potential near-term price volatilities and downside risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strategic growth boosts (60%).

2. Continued market volatility (30%).

3. Local economic factors causing price fluctuations (10%).


Trading Oracle: Sell near-term OTM bull put spreads, focusing on expiry around 51 days ahead, capitalizing on mean reversion tendencies and moderately low volatility. This approach balances gains with controlled risk, aiming for consistent profitability.


July 21, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JOE



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.28)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.24)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.04)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JOE



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.04)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.25)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.28)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JOE



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.28)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.24)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.04)





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