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AI MNA Forecast


Bullish Case: MNA's implied volatility is currently elevated, indicating heightened market uncertainty which could lead to a recovery if positive merger news surfaces. Historical data shows potential for long-term stabilization, given volatility reverts to mean over time.

Bearish Case: Current high near-term volatility risks a significant price drop, especially if economic conditions worsen or merger prospects fail. Historical trends indicate a strong likelihood of negative returns in the short to medium term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Market stabilization due to merger news (30%).

2. Continued flat price with slight declines (40%).

3. Sharp downturn if volatility persists with negative news (30%).

Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bearish credit spread strategy by selling 29C/30C to capitalize on elevated volatility, with a short time outlook of 1-2 months. This strategy has a high reward-to-risk ratio and fits well with the current bearish sentiment.

September 10, 2024


IQ Merger Arbitrage Forecast

MNA      IQ Merger Arbitrage

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MNA


EVGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVGO  EVgo (0.79)


GLPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLPI  Gaming and Leisure Properties (0.75)


BCRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCRX  Biocryst Pharmaceuticals (0.72)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (0.71)


SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MNA


JBHT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBHT  J.B. Hunt Transport Services (0.0)


HSIC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HSIC  Henry Schein (0.0)


USO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USO  United States Commodity Funds (-0.0)


AA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AA  Alcoa (-0.0)


TGNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGNA  TEGNA (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MNA


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (-0.59)


WSM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WSM  Williams-Sonoma (-0.6)


TSLQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSLQ  Investment Managers Series Trust II - AXS TSLA Bear Daily (-0.62)


URNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URNM  North Shore Global Uranium Mining (-0.64)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.66)



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