Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased demand for agribusiness products and supply constraints may drive prices up, leading MOO to recover towards $80, spurred by heightened trading volume in call options and support at current levels.

Bearish Case: Economic downturns or changing agricultural policies can negatively impact MOO, pushing prices down towards $60, as suggested by increasing put option volume and bearish sentiment across the market reflected in high implied volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

• Stable Market at $70 (30%)
• Moderate Recovery to $75 (25%)
• Possible Decline to $65 (20%)
• Significant Rise to $80+ (15%)
• Sharp Drop Below $60 (10%)

Trading Oracle: Explore a long call spread strategy targeting $75 with expiration around April 2025, minimizing risk from current volatility. Alternatively, consider a short put spread under $65 due to strong bearish signals, leveraging high implied volatility for potential recovery while managing downside risk effectively.

December 15, 2024