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MPW Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MPW could see upside if asset sales improve liquidity, benefitting from healthcare sector stability and potential strategic partnerships.

Bearish Case: Significant financial distress and liquidity issues may lead to further declines, exacerbated by tenant instability and high leverage concerns.

Potential Outcomes: MPW reduces debt and stabilizes finances (40%). Liquidity issues lead to asset sales (50%). Bankruptcy/major acquisition event (10%).

Trading Oracle: Focus on a bearish debit spread, buying $3.5 puts, selling $3.0 puts, expiring in 30 days. This leans on high near-term volatility and MPW's potential financial struggles. Optimize for risk-reward using Helium models.

January 15, 2025

Medical Properties Forecast

MPW Medical Properties

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MPW

XYL Xylem (0.73)

VOD Vodafone (0.67)

KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (0.66)

AZN Astrazeneca (0.66)

BLBD Blue Bird (0.65)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MPW

POWL Powell Industries (0.0)

GLNG Golar Lng (-0.0)

GME Gamestop (0.0)

MFC Manulife Financial (-0.0)

CVS CVS Health (-0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MPW

GTLB Gitlab (-0.62)

ASAN Asana (-0.66)

WHR Whirlpool (-0.66)

FNA Paragon 28 (-0.67)

NET Cloudflare (-0.68)

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