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MRCY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Mercury Systems' recent contracts and technological advancements may catalyze growth, aligning with the bullish social sentiment. The defense sector's strategic importance underscores potential upside.

Bearish Case: Persistent legal issues and leadership instability, coupled with elevated volatility, pose ongoing risks. Previous predictions of underperformance due to market uncertainty still hold weight.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful contract execution leads to 15% rise (40%).

2) Legal and leadership challenges result in 10% drop (50%).

3) Minor price stabilization (10%).

Trading Oracle: Opt for bullish debit spreads targeting the $42.50/$47.50 range, expiring in June. This capitalizes on potential recovery from contract synergies while hedging against potential bearish outcomes. Elevated implied volatility supports long volatility strategies.

January 28, 2025

Mercury Systems Forecast

MRCY Mercury Systems

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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CRS Carpenter Technology (0.89)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MRCY

DOX Amdocs (0.01)

CWH Camping World (0.02)

INTU Intuit (0.02)

TALK Talkspace (0.03)

BB BlackBerry (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MRCY

LEA Lear (-0.83)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)

IEP Icahn (-0.85)

HDSN Hudson Technologies (-0.85)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.85)

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Market Forecasts

Bullish / Bearish

Digital Assets / Most Accurate

Trading Strategies

Long Volatility

Short Volatility

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