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MRK Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MRK has strong growth potential with Keytruda's market dominance, pipeline expansions, and recent FDA approvals boosting investor confidence despite current undervaluation.

Bearish Case: High implied volatilities suggest uncertainty, with risks from patent cliffs, increased competition, and legal challenges potentially impacting MRK's pricing resilience.

Potential Outcomes: 60%: Pipeline growth from new approvals. 40%: Market pressures from patent cliffs. 30%: Competitive market squeezes revenue.

June 20, 2025

Merck Forecast

MRK Merck

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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XRX Xerox (0.94)

NVAX Novavax (0.94)

KSS Kohl's (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MRK

BIP Brookfield Infrastructure (0.01)

HRI Herc (0.02)

APPN Appian (-0.02)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (-0.03)

POWW AMMO (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MRK

VRSN Verisign (-0.88)

PPL PPL (-0.88)

PAYX Paychex (-0.89)

ORI Old Republic International (-0.9)

SAP Sap SE (-0.92)

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