MRK Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Strong growth dynamics in oncology and vaccines with promising clinical trial results; recent approvals like Capvaxive and ongoing revenue from Keytruda suggest a robust future.


Bearish Case: Potential revenue pressures from upcoming patent cliffs and generic competition, coupled with unresolved regulatory and legal issues could hinder growth prospects.


Potential Outcomes: Continued growth driven by successful product launches (50%); revenue hit from generic competition (30%); mixed impact from regulatory/legal issues (20%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish credit spreads, focusing on short volatility. Sell 1 $122 put for $16 and buy 2 $118 puts expiring in ~8 days. Strong implied volatility edge, high profit probability (76%), superior reward:risk. Maximize alpha by exploiting mean reverting tendencies and bullish momentum. Avoid long volatility; credit spreads provide optimal return with controlled risk.


July 19, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MRK



BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (0.92)


TSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSCO  Tractor Supply (0.92)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.91)


UCTT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCTT  Ultra Clean Hldgs (0.9)


UTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UTZ  Utz Brands (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MRK



RUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RUN  Sunrun (-0.0)


NVAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVAX  Novavax (-0.0)


GPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPN  Global Payments (0.0)


KWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KWEB  KraneShares CSI China Internet (0.0)


ES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ES  Eversource Energy (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MRK



TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.85)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.85)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.88)





Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with MRK


 Ask any question about MRK!