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MRNA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong FDA approvals for vaccines and therapeutic potential in oncology can drive MRNA stock higher, fueled by market optimism and high demand for upcoming products.



Bearish Case: Continued legal challenges and declining vaccine demand create significant downside risks for MRNA, possibly leading to further stock depreciation and investor skepticism.



Potential Outcomes:

1. FDA approval for new vaccines (50% likelihood)

2. Legal setbacks negatively impacting perception (30% likelihood)

3. Market responds positively to increased sales post-approval (20% likelihood)



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread approach; buy MRNA $50 calls and sell $55 calls targeting mid-February 2025 expiration. Leverage the high implied volatility and increasing demand potential to capture pricing momentum. Aim for a return of 20% with minimal downside risk.


November 12, 2024


Moderna Forecast

MRNA        Moderna

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