Bullish Case: Moderna's pipeline expansion in cancer and rare diseases offers substantial growth potential. Success in non-COVID vaccines could drive significant revenue streams, positioning the company for a rebound.

Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges and declining demand for COVID-19 vaccines pose significant financial risks. High near-term implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, aligned with bearish sentiment from trading volumes.

Potential Outcomes:

• 50% chance of revenue stabilization through new vaccines.
• 30% likelihood of further financial setbacks from legal issues.
• 20% potential market share growth from pipeline success.

Trading Oracle: Consider bearish credit spreads targeting near-term expirations. Sell out-of-the-money call spreads to capitalize on current negative sentiment and high implied volatility. This offers high reward:risk with a short-term outlook.

February 15, 2025