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MRNA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MRNA's broad pipeline, including potential breakthroughs in cancer vaccines and beyond COVID, suggests long-term growth potential amid stable volatility.

Bearish Case: MRNA faces declining vaccine demand and legal hurdles, compounded by negative sentiment and competitive pressures, contributing to a bleak short-term outlook.

Potential Outcomes: 60%: New drug approval boosts MRNA stock. 25%: Legal challenges impact revenues. 15%: Market stability maintains status quo.

Trading Oracle: Consider credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) focusing on near-term scenarios given backwardation and high implied volatility. Bearish bias with put spreads could leverage current sentiment and revenue challenges, capitalizing on downside risk.

January 15, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MRNA

VAL Valaris (0.94)

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (0.9)

TNK Teekay Tankers (0.88)

BLNK Blink Charging (0.88)

NEP NextEra Energy (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MRNA

CZR Caesars Entertainment (-0.0)

LEN Lennar (0.01)

WY Weyerhaeuser (-0.01)

BB BlackBerry (-0.01)

ACGL Arch (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MRNA

CBRE CBRE (-0.85)

TPG TPG (-0.86)

CLPT ClearPoint Neuro (-0.86)

ADP Automatic Data Processing (-0.87)

NOW ServiceNow (-0.91)

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