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MRNA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Moderna's pipeline expansion in cancer and rare diseases offers substantial growth potential. Success in non-COVID vaccines could drive significant revenue streams, positioning the company for a rebound.

Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges and declining demand for COVID-19 vaccines pose significant financial risks. High near-term implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, aligned with bearish sentiment from trading volumes.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of revenue stabilization through new vaccines.
30% likelihood of further financial setbacks from legal issues.
20% potential market share growth from pipeline success.

Trading Oracle: Consider bearish credit spreads targeting near-term expirations. Sell out-of-the-money call spreads to capitalize on current negative sentiment and high implied volatility. This offers high reward:risk with a short-term outlook.

February 15, 2025

Moderna Forecast

MRNA Moderna

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Future Uncertainty

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