MRNA Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MRNA's potential in mRNA therapies beyond COVID-19, including cancer and flu, remains promising, supported by high investor interest and ongoing R&D funding.




Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges, declining vaccine demand, and regulatory uncertainties pose significant risks, threatening financial stability and investor confidence.




Potential Outcomes:
1. Vaccine demand stabilizes at low levels (70%).

2. New vaccine success spurs growth (50%).

3. Legal losses impact reputation (30%).



May 10, 2025


Moderna Forecast

MRNA        Moderna











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MRNA



ASH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASH  Ashland (0.97)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (0.96)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.95)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.95)


CVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVE  Cenovus Energy (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MRNA



IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (-0.0)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.0)


APPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPN  Appian (-0.01)


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.01)


SLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLS  SELLAS Life Sciences (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MRNA



PPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPL  PPL (-0.91)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.92)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (-0.92)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.92)


CORT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORT  Corcept Therapeutics (-0.93)









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