Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Moderna's pipeline expansion and potential FDA approvals for new vaccines could drive a substantial rebound due to renewed market confidence in mRNA applications, particularly in oncology and respiratory vaccines.

Bearish Case: Continued patent disputes and declining COVID vaccine demand could significantly hinder revenue, leading to further stock price erosion amid a competitive market landscape.

Potential Outcomes:

• 50%: FDA approval for new mRNA vaccines drives stock up significantly.
• 30%: Legal setbacks lead to further revenue declines, negatively impacting stock.
• 20%: Strong adoption of new viral vaccines stabilizes revenue and market share.

Trading Oracle: Given high implied volatility, consider a bullish debit spread by buying $45 calls and selling $50 calls targeting February 2025 expiration. This leverages potential upside while managing risk exposure. High probability of profit aligns well with upcoming catalysts.

December 14, 2024