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MSFT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: With strong AI and cloud service growth prospects, coupled with strategic nuclear energy investments for data centers, MSFT may see substantial upside, especially if macro conditions stabilize.



Bearish Case: Increasing competition in AI and cloud markets, along with legal headwinds from recent strikes, could pressure MSFT’s growth trajectory and investor sentiment, leading to potential downside.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of AI investments yielding high returns due to increasing demand.

2. 25% chance of legal challenges leading to financial penalties.

3. 15% chance of macroeconomic downturn impacting overall tech sector negatively.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying 1 $430 call and selling 1 $432.5 call, expiring in December 2024, as volatility is currently low. Expected return on risk is high, capitalizing on strong historical returns and the positive outlook for AI and cloud growth.


November 14, 2024


Microsoft Forecast

MSFT        Microsoft

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSFT


TQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TQQQ  ProShares UltraPro QQQ (0.87)


TECL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECL  Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (0.87)


SMH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMH  VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (0.86)


XLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLK  Technology Select Sector SPDR (0.85)


QLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QLD  ProShares Ultra QQQ (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSFT


CELH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CELH  Celsius (-0.0)


CDLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDLX  Cardlytics (0.0)


NNDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NNDM  Nano Dimension Ltd (-0.01)


EXPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXPD  Expeditors International Of Washington (0.01)


ALGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGN  Align Technology (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSFT


LEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEG  Leggett & Platt (-0.73)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.75)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.75)


COUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COUR  Coursera (-0.76)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.76)







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