MSFT Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Microsoft's AI growth, cloud dominance, and strategic acquisitions position it for strong returns. Despite recent declines, strong demand for AI & cloud services offers upside potential, supported by lower implied volatility.




Bearish Case: Intensifying competition in AI, regulatory hurdles, and dependencies (e.g. OpenAI, ActiveX challenges) may pressure growth. Recent price drops and legal/regulatory headwinds could further increase market skepticism.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable AI growth boosts stock (50%).

2. Regulatory issues with Activision regain (30%).

3. Unexpected tech competition hinders growth (20%).



April 17, 2025


Microsoft Forecast

MSFT        Microsoft











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AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.59)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (0.57)



Uncorrelated Assets

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LIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LIT  Global X Lithium & Battery Tech (-0.0)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.0)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (-0.0)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (-0.01)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSFT



PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (-0.46)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.46)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (-0.48)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.52)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.53)









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