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MSFT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Microsoft's strong AI and cloud growth trajectory, coupled with strategic acquisitions and partnerships, positions it for continued market leadership and stock appreciation.

Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny on acquisitions and rising competition in AI pose significant risks, potentially leading to investor apprehension and pressure on Microsoft's stock.

Potential Outcomes: 97% Strategic AI initiative successes revenue up. 50% Legal issues hinder $405. 40% Regulatory changes slow growth. 10% New market entrants gain share.

Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish debit spread: Buy $415 calls, sell $420 calls expiring two weeks out. With recent volatility dips in the term structure and Microsoft's strong AI drive, capitalize on potential upside with managed risk. Set stop-loss at a 15% drop.

February 12, 2025

Microsoft Forecast

MSFT Microsoft

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