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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish

Bullish Case: Microsoft's strong fundamentals in AI and cloud services, coupled with an upcoming bounce back from recent IT setbacks, suggest potential significant upside in share price as sentiment improves.

Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and the aftermath of high-profile outages may erode investor confidence, leading to potential stagnation or decline in MSFT's stock price amidst rising competition.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 45% chance of robust AI revenue growth driving stock past $460.

2. 30% chance for regulatory setbacks leading to price stabilization below $410.

3. 25% potential downturn tied to adverse market conditions impacting tech broadly.

Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish debit spread strategy. Purchase one $415 call and sell one $420 call for expiration in two weeks. This captures potential upside while leveraging current volatility; risks managed with a stop-loss at a 15% drop.

August 20, 2024


Microsoft Forecast

MSFT      Microsoft

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSFT


TQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TQQQ  ProShares UltraPro QQQ (0.97)


SMH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMH  VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (0.96)


TECL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECL  Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (0.96)


MGK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGK  Vanguard Mega Cap Growth (0.96)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSFT


RH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RH  RH - (0.0)


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (-0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.0)


NEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEP  NextEra Energy (0.01)


FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSFT


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.9)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.94)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.95)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.96)



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