MSTR Forecast


Bullish Case: MSTR's continued substantial Bitcoin accumulation aligns with projected long-term bullish trends for BTC. Historical returns imply high likelihood of significant positive performance over medium-term holding periods. Implied volatility term structure suggests forthcoming periods of heightened volatility—potentially advantageous for bullish spreads.


Bearish Case: MSTR's heavy reliance on Bitcoin poses considerable downside risks; significant volatility and regulatory hurdles could impinge on BTC value and, consequently, MSTR's stock price. High short interest and recent downward trade volume highlight investor skepticism and potential price declines.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance: Continued BTC accumulation boosts MSTR's value amid a bullish crypto market; 35% chance: Bitcoin price volatility and regulatory issues induce near-term declines; 15% chance: MSTR's operational strategies mitigate Bitcoin dependency risks, stabilizing stock performance.


Trading Oracle: Implement a 1-2 month bullish debit spread focused on MSTR, leveraging the high implied volatility and expected increase in BTC value. Target near-the-money calls maturing just after the upcoming stock split to maximize gains. Hedge downside risk with out-of-the-money puts, aiming for a high reward-to-risk ratio.


July 18, 2024


Microstrategy Forecast

MSTR      Microstrategy











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSTR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSTR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSTR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.84)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)





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