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MSTR Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: MSTR's significant Bitcoin holdings and upcoming pro-crypto regulation could propel its price, especially with supportive market sentiment following Trump's victory. High implied volatility indicates traders expect bullish moves, favoring a rise to $450.

Bearish Case: Increased regulatory scrutiny, potential Bitcoin price declines, or MSTR selling pressure from debt issuance could significantly impact its valuation. Historical trends suggest potential declines if Bitcoin falters, with a possibility of dropping below $250.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Bitcoin rallies post-election (60% chance);

2. Regulatory hurdles trigger a decline (25% chance);

3. MSTR liquidation from debt costs (15% chance). MSTR's price trajectory heavily relies on Bitcoin and market sentiment shifts.

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November 12, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSTR

VAL Valaris (0.85)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (0.79)

SIMO Silicon Motion Technology (0.79)

BITO ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (0.78)

ABNB Airbnb (0.75)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSTR

YANG Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.0)

GTLB Gitlab (-0.0)

COUR Coursera (0.01)

U Unity Software (-0.01)

FTI TechnipFMC (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSTR

EPR EPR Properties (-0.71)

RDFN Redfin (-0.72)

COMM CommScope (-0.77)

SAVA Cassava Sciences (-0.77)

XEL Xcel Energy (-0.78)

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