VST Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Vistra's strategic acquisition and AI involvement have led to significant price growth and bullish sentiment, further bolstered by strong earnings and dividends.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility and market uncertainty, combined with potential regulatory changes, could negatively impact Vistra's stock performance.


Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of continued bullish trend supported by acquisitions and AI. 30% chance of correction due to volatility and regulatory shifts. 10% chance of stable prices given mixed factors.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bull put credit spread by selling near-term 92.0 puts and buying 77.5 puts. This leverages high implied volatility while managing downside risk, expiring in ~9 days. Aim for 50% max profit.


July 12, 2024










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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VST



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.44)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.81)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.83)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VST



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.44)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.81)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.83)





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