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MUR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Murphy Oil’s implied volatility is stabilizing, suggesting potential for price recovery. Support from strategic projects and the possibility of higher energy prices lend an optimistic outlook.



Bearish Case: High historical volatility combined with negative price trends and insider selling signal potential continued declines. Environmental concerns and weak volume further cloud future prospects.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of recovery due to stabilized volatility and strategic projects.
  • 40% chance of continued decline influenced by insider selling and flat market conditions.
  • 20% chance stable price with slight fluctuations.



Trading Oracle: Consider a Bearish Long Volatility strategy by buying OOTM put options due to high implied volatility and declining trend in price, aligning with current bearish indicators like insider selling and poor performance.


April 26, 2025


Murphy Oil Forecast

MUR        Murphy Oil

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MUR


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.97)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.96)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (0.96)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (0.95)


ADNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADNT  Adient (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MUR


MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (0.01)


BHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHC  Bausch Health Companies (-0.02)


APPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPN  Appian (-0.02)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.03)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MUR


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.89)


AON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AON  Aon plc. - (-0.89)


TSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSAT  Telesat Corp (-0.91)


FOXA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOXA  Fox Corporation - (-0.93)


ORLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORLY  O'Reilly Automotive (-0.94)







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