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NLY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: With a low P/B ratio and recent price recovery, NLY benefits from potential rate cuts and a stable dividend environment, making it attractive to income-focused investors.



Bearish Case: High interest rate environment and potential spread widening pose risks to NLY’s earnings, which could pressure dividend sustainability and lead to a decline in share value.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Rate stabilization leads to price increment: 45%.
  • Continued dividend cuts trigger decline: 40%.
  • Flat trading amid mixed signals: 15%.



Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish credit spread strategy. Sell $21.00 calls and buy $22.00 calls expiring in March, capturing decay and potential declines. Leverage high short-term implied volatility for profitability, focusing on 2-4 weeks outlook.


February 12, 2025


Annaly Forecast

NLY        Annaly

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Uncorrelated Assets

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APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NLY


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (-0.36)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (-0.38)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.38)


EA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EA  Electronic Arts (-0.42)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.44)







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