NOC Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: NOC's strong contract wins and technological advancements suggest continued growth, bolstered by strategic defense investments and geopolitical tensions.




Bearish Case: Modernization challenges and geopolitical risks may pressure NOC’s margins, leading to potential declines if defense contract renewals falter.




Potential Outcomes: Continued contract wins (60%), modernization challenges impact margins (25%), geopolitical tensions affect stock (15%).




Trading Oracle: Trade debit spreads with a bullish bias, targeting mid-term expiry. Buy $480 calls, sell $495 calls, leveraging strong contract pipeline and favorable implied volatility.



February 11, 2025


Northrop Grumman Forecast

NOC        Northrop Grumman











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SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.83)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.82)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.82)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NOC



GME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GME  Gamestop (0.0)


GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (0.0)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.01)


WHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WHR  Whirlpool (-0.01)


MOH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MOH  Molina Healthcare (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NOC



ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (-0.71)


SONY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SONY  Sony Group Corporation (-0.71)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.74)


PLUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLUG  Plug Power (-0.75)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (-0.83)









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