Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The recent peak in implied volatility for call options suggests anticipation of positive corporate news or market sentiment shifts, offering a potential for significant price increases.

Bearish Case: Potential legal and regulatory challenges could hinder revenue growth, reflected in the high implied volatility for puts, indicating market fears of downside risk.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Positive earnings surprise leading to a 15% rise (35% probability).

2) Ongoing legal challenges cause a 10% drop (25% probability).

3) Stagnation as market volatility normalizes (20% probability).

4) Surge in digital subscription leads to 20% upside (20% probability).

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish long volatility strategy by buying 1 $55 call and selling 1 $60 call, expiring in ~38 days. Implied volatilities suggest positive price movement ahead; capitalizing on high demand for calls maximizes reward-to-risk ratio.

November 14, 2024