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ORCL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Oracle's cloud and AI services continue to gain traction, driving revenue growth. Recent partnerships enhance optimism, supporting a bullish price outlook driven by increased demand in cloud computing and AI functionalities.



Bearish Case: Market risks persist, stemming from fierce competition and legal challenges. A potential economic recession could slow growth further and reduce investment in Oracle's offerings, triggering a bearish sentiment.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Cloud Growth Continues (60%): Strong performance in cloud and AI increases revenues.
  • Market Competition Intensifies (25%): Loss of clients to competitors hampers revenue.
  • Legal Challenges Emerge (15%): Ongoing lawsuits negatively influence stock performance.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish put credit spread, selling $170 puts and buying $165 puts, with a target expiration in ~11 days. Estimated profit potential of 30% aligns with current bullish sentiment and Helium's favorable odds of 56% for this structure. The downside risk remains contained with a solid risk-reward profile.


December 17, 2024


Oracle Forecast

ORCL        Oracle

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Assets that tend to move strongly with ORCL


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SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.97)


SPXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXL  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (0.96)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.95)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ORCL


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.0)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (0.0)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.01)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (-0.01)


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ORCL


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.9)


CABA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CABA  Cabaletta Bio (-0.9)


XRAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRAY  DENTSPLY Sirona (-0.9)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.97)







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