Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Strong demand for Oracle's cloud services and strategic partnerships, notably with Amazon, suggest significant revenue growth potential. The upcoming financial reports may lead to bullish sentiment if expectations are met or exceeded.

Bearish Case: Intensifying competition, particularly with advancements by competitors like Google and AWS, could lead to client losses and revenue slowdowns. Ongoing legal issues may further dampen investor confidence and stock performance.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of robust financial performance due to cloud growth.

2. 20% chance of a significant drop in stock price owing to competitive pressures.

3. 15% chance of facing additional legal challenges that might hurt earnings.

4. 5% chance of severe market corrections affecting overall tech stocks.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish put credit spread by selling the $190.00 strike and buying the $185.00 strike put options, expiring in 11 days. This strategy captures Helium's short volatility edge of 64% with potential returns of 12%, capitalizing on current high bullish sentiment.

November 13, 2024