PARR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: High volume Call trading and positive long-term price returns indicate strong institutional interest. Helium implied volatility is lower than the market, suggesting potential undervaluation and upside volatility.


Bearish Case: Recent price trends and insider selling point to a potential downturn. Helium's higher short-term volatility may signal increased risk and uncertainty over the next few months.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 45% chance of stabilization: institutional support.

2. 30% chance of further downturns: insider selling & high volatility.

3. 25% slight gains: positive long-term returns.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a 6-month bull call spread: buy the PARR Jan 2025 $25 C and sell the Jan 2025 $35 C. This captures potential upside with limited risk, leveraging the favorable long-term historical returns and institutional backing. This spread benefits from current undervalued implied volatilities.


June 27, 2024


Par Pacific Forecast

PARR      Par Pacific











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PARR



GPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPN  Global Payments (0.87)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.81)


SVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SVXY  ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (0.8)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (0.78)


ODP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODP  ODP (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PARR



SBSW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBSW  Sibanye Stillwater (0.0)


VMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VMC  Vulcan Materials (0.0)


KEY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KEY  Keycorp (-0.0)


SKLZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKLZ  Skillz (0.0)


HBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBI  Hanesbrands (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PARR



AR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AR  Antero Resources (-0.64)


PAAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAAS  Pan American Silver (-0.66)


MAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAG  MAG Silver (-0.71)


ARLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARLP  Alliance Resource (-0.74)


LNTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNTH  Lantheus (-0.74)





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