PBD Forecast


Bullish Case: PBD could rebound if regulatory support for clean energy accelerates, leading to increased investments and market confidence. Recent IVs suggest heightened sentiment for upward moves, potentially pushing prices above $15.


Bearish Case: Continued mean reversion and potential economic slowdowns could drag PBD prices down, driven by lower demand for renewable energy investments. High implied volatility in lower strikes reflects market apprehension about further declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory support boosts investments (+10%; 30%).

2. Economic downturn impacts clean energy demand (-5%; 65%).

3. Stable market leads to little change (-1%; 5%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying PBD 08/16/2024 $14 call at 1.75 and selling $16 call at 0.70. Aim for a higher reward/risk ratio as volatility potentially increases heading into fall, leveraging current IV levels.


July 25, 2024


Invesco Global Clean Energy Forecast

PBD      Invesco Global Clean Energy











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TAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAN  Invesco Solar (0.92)


BNTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNTX  BioNTech SE (0.79)


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYND  Beyond Meat (0.78)


SGML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SGML  Sigma Lithium (0.77)


RWT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWT  Redwood (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PBD



SIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIL  Global X Funds - Global X Silver Miners (0.0)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.0)


AKAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKAM  Akamai (0.0)


ZIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZIM  Zim Integrated Shipping Services (-0.0)


KEYS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KEYS  Keysight (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PBD



GEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEO  Geo Group (-0.6)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (-0.62)


HQY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HQY  Healthequity (-0.62)


TM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TM  Toyota Motor (-0.62)


MPLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPLX  MPLX (-0.62)





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