PBP Forecast


Bullish Case: PBP historical patterns suggest moderate price gains over medium holding periods. Implied volatility is relatively stable for ATM strikes, indicating a potential upwards movement (+3-5%).


Bearish Case: Current PBP is only moderately higher than two years ago. Implied volatility surface suggests a higher risk for OTM options, indicating potential price stability or minor declines (-1-3%).


Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable: 30% - Minimal movement due to flat price action.

2. Modest increase: 40% - Moderate upward trend from historical returns.

3. Decline: 30% - Marginal decrease indicated by recent price proximity to historical lows.


Trading Oracle: Trade Helium Short Volatility by selling PBP 22.00 strike calls (IV: 33.2%) expiring 07/19/2024 while buying protective 27.00 strike calls (IV: 72.3%). Low implied volatility for ATM indicates lower risk and high potential for premium capture. High reward:risk ratio for slight bullish trend over next 3 weeks.


June 30, 2024


Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite Forecast

PBP      Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite












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