PHM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: PHM's high call option volume suggests strong bullish sentiment. Stable market volatility and robust housing demand bolster upward momentum.




Bearish Case: PHM faces challenges with rising rates and a recent price drop. Elevated put volumes and macroeconomic pressures risk a downturn.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. 50% Chance: Continued steady growth due to strong market fundamentals.
  2. 30% Chance: Price stagnates amid economic uncertainties.
  3. 20% Chance: A correction arises from overvaluation concerns.




Trading Oracle: Leverage the Bullish Short Volatility strategy by selling ATM puts and buying OOTM puts. High call volume supports bullish sentiment while a stable implied volatility structure controls risks.



February 26, 2025


PulteGroup Forecast

PHM        PulteGroup











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Assets that tend to move strongly with PHM



ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.94)


KBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KBH  KB Home (0.93)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.92)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.87)


GRBK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRBK  Green Brick (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PHM



TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.0)


HAE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAE  Haemonetics (0.0)


PACB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PACB  Pacific Biosciences of California (-0.0)


PPG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPG  PPG Industries (-0.01)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PHM



ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (-0.66)


NGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGL  NGL Energy Partners (-0.69)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.73)


SONY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SONY  Sony Group Corporation (-0.75)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.77)









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