PHT Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong historical institutional support evidenced by large hedge funds and continuous buying indicates confidence in PHT's long-term potential. Given its recent rebound from a decade low and mean-reverting behavior, holding for over 2 years shows moderate to high potential for positive returns.


Bearish Case: Given the mean-reverting nature, short-term prospects show limited returns. High correlation to an underperforming municipal bond index and lack of significant momentum suggest potential for further decline in the near term, especially considering slight negative drift in recent prices.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continuation of mean-reverting trend (60%)

2. Market correction or crash impacting high-yield bonds (20%)

3. Increased institutional buying and bullish sentiment leads to sustained rally (15%)

4. Policy changes benefiting municipal bonds (5%).


Trading Oracle: Recommend employing a credit spread strategy (Helium Short Volatility) given PHT’s mean-reverting pattern, aiming for small incremental gains. Initiate positions around $7.40-$7.50, and consider a 2-4 month outlook. This reflects moderate bullish expectancy with limited downside risk, ensuring high reward-risk ratio and positive edge.


June 28, 2024


Pioneer High Income Forecast

PHT      Pioneer High Income











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PHT



HLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HLT  Hilton Worldwide (0.94)


DDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDM  ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.93)


FAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAS  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (0.93)


SPHB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPHB  Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 High Beta (0.93)


XLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLF  Financial Select Sector SPDR (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PHT



GRAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRAB  Grab Holdings Limited (-0.0)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (-0.0)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.0)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (0.01)


INCY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INCY  Incyte (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PHT



VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.9)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.92)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.92)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.93)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)


PHT News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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